With families in trouble real estate and automotive sector just hopes that the U.S. Government continue to drive demand via new fiscal stimulus. This situation isn’t anything attractive for investment, so its effect is clearly limited. This U.S. economy, certainly has little strength to achieve a sustained recovery.

And fiscal problems, limit the scope of action of the public sector to give continuity to the stimulus packages. It is the marked weakness, and without even considering the possibility that some risks can become a crisis situation specific, that if you continue the recovery of the American economy, it at least will be closer to 2%, in the best of cases, over 3% dreamed by Epstein. For those who rely on the perception of the projections of 50 major indicators, market analysts that monthly published in the American economy and that are known as Blue Chip Economic Indicators, fed hopes that they have not observed in any case, what do think about the possibility of a relapse in the US economy. Even, these forecasters anticipate growth slightly below 3% in 2010 and above that value, for 2011. If we go to the ten most optimistic visions, these point to a growth of 4% for both 2010 and 2011, with unemployment that would fall to 7.9 per cent of the economically active population by the end of 2011. These optimistic bet relies strongly on the role of the consumption of families, role, as I said above, I doubt seriously that they can comply.

Another argument that is displayed to rely on a strong recovery is so weak as mentioned that relies on the battered American consumer: past experience indicates that after a sharp recession, the recovery exceeds the peak of product previously reached in little time, drawing a dynamic product in the form of V. those who support this argument, they have given too much relevance to 5.9% of GDP growth achieved in the last quarter of 2009 and forget that the same has been reached only through a strong fiscal stimulus.